2024 In Review

Looking at the Year's Photographic Negative

I usually author an entire year end summary- best fiction and nonfiction books (for the record, I liked James by Percival Everett, as an inventive take on an American classic, and Ingenious: A Biography of Benjamin Franklin, by Richard Munson, for its highlighting of another facet of this great American). It’s even harder to make judgments about films in 2024 since I saw so few. Aside from Reagan, no other film stands out in my mind.

Despite all the anxiety, all the media lies and fabrications, and the fact that this was an election year, what really stood out in relief was what DIDN’T HAPPEN. We are living through the most tumultuous, unstable, and transformative period since WWII, and perhaps worse than WWII since America is so disunited. The cultural schisms have gotten very deep and we are dealing with multiple movements that we did not face in the 1940’s - the reverse discrimination and antisemitism of DEI, the sexualization of children in schools, the trans movement, a progressive movement that attempted to displace the narrative of the nation’s founding with the 1619 Project, and to do away with fundamental structures such as the electoral college. Unlike mid-century America, 21^st century America has weaponized enforcement federal agencies with the F.B.I. actually paying social media platforms to suppress free speech. The administration went as far as appointed a czar of misinformation until it was ridiculed into backing off. Most egregiously, America has had a shadow presidency, something we have not had since Edith Wilson ran the White House. It was obvious to most Americans that Joe Biden wasn’t making any crucial decisions despite his advisors and the legacy media chanting in unison that he was “sharp as a tack.”

My X handle and Substack name is Darkly Optimistic. Given all that was swirling about us in the past year, I probably leaned more heavily on the “Darkly” part of the moniker. But as I reflect on 2024 and the events that occurred, 2024 was remarkable for many of the things that didn’t occur (but that we feared might) and we should be grateful for it.

· Donald Trump wasn’t assassinated. Although many questions remain, such as information about Matthew Crooks and then Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle’s amateurish explanation for why the rooftop wasn’t covered (the slope of the roof was too steep), the fact is that Trump wasn’t assassinated. He survived it by millimeters, a mere head turn, and with his survival, an altered history, one in which the Woke Cultural Revolution would continue to gain traction in government with no resistance. Many believe that the failed assassination attempt was providential. Whether you believe that or not, the fact that his life and candidacy did not end that July afternoon will have effects that will impact future generations.

· A recession never materialized. It was feared that the sharp runup in interest rates in late 2022 and early 2023 would trigger a recession but that never happened. It seemed that the Federal Reserve was able to engineer a soft landing- something that almost never occurs. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, there was also no exogenous shock that pushed the U.S. economy into recession. For sure, it was helped by gargantuan deficits, and the employment data that most analysts view as downward revisions in the employment numbers became the norm. But the fact remains that unemployment rate stands at a very low 4.2% and the U.S. skirted the pain of a recession.

· We suffered no large-scale terrorist attack. Despite having an open border for 3 ½ years, and millions of unvetted people pouring in, the U.S. managed to avoid a terrorist attack of any significance. A minor miracle given the scale of the invasion.

· The 2024 election occurred without widespread chaos. Yes, there were still indicia of cheating in localized races, but it was not enough to affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Trump won every swing state and Harris failed to better Biden’s showing in any county in the country. Many of us feared an outcome that was a duplicate of 2020, where we would go to sleep with Trump having a comfortable lead, only to see it melt away with “found” or mail-in ballots, calling into question the legitimacy of the election. That never happened and Trump won the popular vote as well. Best of all, Antifa and BLM were no shows and the violence predicted by people like Charles Haywood never occurred.

· China did not invade Taiwan. For the last two years, several observers have worried that China would see this as an opportune moment. It may never get better than this. The U.S. depleted its treasury, its strategic oil reserve and its munitions in combating Russian aggression in Ukraine and its own fiscal mess. IN addition, China saw the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal and understands full well that Biden is not in command. The U.S. navy is tattered and stretched. Yet, China did not move forward despite a weakened, ill-prepared and feckless Biden administration at the helm.

· Israel did not stop its assault on Iran’s proxy forces. Despite enormous pressure from the U.S. and the international community (whatever that is), a slowdown in arms shipments from the U.S., and even admonishment from Pope Francis, the IDF continues to dismantle the proxy states of Iran. It did not stop its attack on Rafah, despite Blinken’s call to do so. It has nearly finished Hamas off, has inflicted great losses on Hezbollah and is now going after the Houthis. It wiped out most of Hezbollah’s hierarchy with its ingenious pager attack. In addition, it withstood direct missile attacks from Iran with little damage, and the Israeli air force took down Iran’s Russian made S-300 sir defense system in a day (next time, buy the extended warranty package, boys). And so far, despite assessments that Iran was weeks away from getting the bomb, we haven’t seen any evidence of an operational nuclear device.

· Putin hasn’t used nukes. Despite the destabilizing nod Ukraine received from the White House to use missiles deep inside Russian territory, Putin hasn’t used them, despite threats to do so. Perhaps he also worries about opening Pandora’s Box, but the fact that he has restrained himself from using them is cause for relief.

If any of the above events would have occurred, we would be facing a markedly different 2025 and a completely different prospective outlook. If you would have given me this list (at least the bottom half dozen) at the beginning of 2024 and asked me what the odds would be of at least one of them occurring, I probably would have said nearly one hundred percent. Happily, I would have been wrong.

Yes, the Trump election victory gives us a whole new vibe, and even the mostly nonpartisan guys on the Goodfellows podcast (highly recommended) agree. But I believe the positive vibe is much more than what did happen this year. All those things would have been foreseeable, but didn’t happen.